Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. The largest event was a B4.4 flare from Region 835 (N19W81) at 21/1315Z. Region 837 (S11W32) remains the largest group on the disk with an area of 140 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has declined steadily throughout the day from about 550 km/s to 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (22 - 24 December).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 087
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  008/012-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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