Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 14 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 077 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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