Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 March 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 29 2328 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class flares, with both Region 865 (S12E48) and newly numbered 866 (S06E69) contributing. Region 865 is a small (120 millionths), simple D-type group and Region 866 is a small (70 millionths) H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (30 Mar - 1 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (30 Mar - 1 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 082
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø, Trondheim
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-65nT)

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