Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 March 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 28 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 865 (S13E60) rotated around the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class flares are possible in Region 865.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. An isolated active period was observed at Boulder from 28/0300-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 079
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth

The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity. 

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13:55 UTC - Coronal hole

A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days

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02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC

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