Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 April 2006

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class flares occurred. All sunspot regions were relatively small and simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A small C-class flare is possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind observations suggest the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream as the likely cause of the activity.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated storm conditions as the high-speed stream induced activity continues.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       13 Apr 080
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  020/030-015/040-010/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	30%
Minor storm	10%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	40%
Minor storm	15%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (597.1 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.84nT), the direction is North (7.3nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-73nT)

Latest news

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

Saturday, 22 March 2025

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March

Wednesday, 5 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

Large Coronal Hole 25 116 Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 43 Photographing auroras 34 AR4043 8 More on an art than a science 3

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro