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Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 May 2006

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 09 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 882 (S12W58), the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible disk, exhibited no new growth and no activity of note this period. A small B-class flare was observed in Region 883 (S04E26).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 882.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 10 May as a large, recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm periods are likely on 11 and 12 May, and isolated major storm periods are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 083
  Predicted   10 May-12 May  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        09 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  008/012-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%50%50%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%50%50%
Minor storm10%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%20%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.2nT), the direction is slightly South (-7.54nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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