Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 880 (S08W70) is
the only region on the visible disk with spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 072 Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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