Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods due to effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 072 Predicted 18 May-20 May 070/075/080 90 Day Mean 17 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/010-010/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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