Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 May 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 May. On 18 and 19 May,
geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to a
coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 072 Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/075 90 Day Mean 16 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/008-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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