Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 June 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jun 08 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of several B-class flares. Region 892 (S06E15) is now classified as beta gamma. The region is about the same size as yesterday and does not appear to be growing at this time. Region 893 (S02E37) is growing slowly but appears to be stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with a period of minor storming between 08/0300Z and 08/0900Z due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active for the next 12 - 24 hours (09/1200Z - 09/2400Z) due to persistence of the high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast interval (10 - 11 June).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 080
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  018/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  022/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  015/020-007/015-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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