Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 16 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only B-class activity has been observed for the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (17 - 19 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 17 - 18 September due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 19 September.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 079
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  078/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  000/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  010/015-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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