Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 August 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 20 2221 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S14W72) produced multiple B-class and C-class flares including a C2.9 flare at 20/1632Z. This region also produced a long duration C-class flare with maximum occurring at 20/1346Z, An associated CME was observed on the southwest limb in LASCO imagery at 20/1442Z. The plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be 300 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. There was a period of severe storm levels from 1200 - 1800Z recorded on the College, AK magnetometer. This activity is likely due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period, 21 - 23 August. Due to the relatively slow speed of the CME mentioned above, no effects are anticipated during this forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M10%10%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 088
  Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  021/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  022/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  008/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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