Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 September 2006

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 28 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. An eruptive prominence was observed at S31 on the west limb during the middle of the period. Three new regions were numbered today, Regions 912 (N06E65), 913 (S18E68), and 914 (S07E75).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 September. Active to minor storm conditions are expected to begin late in the period on 30 September due to a recurrent coronal hole. The elevated field conditions should persist into 01 October.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       28 Sep 073
  Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  006/008-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	25%	25%
Minor storm	05%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	30%	40%
Minor storm	05%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	10%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.09nT), the direction is North (10.65nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-57nT)

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