Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 917 (S05W86) continues to decay as it rotates off the west limb. No other spotted regions are visible on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 25/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 and 27 October. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on 28 October. Active to minor storm conditions can be expected with the onset of the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 075
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  004/005-010/010-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%40%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%45%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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