Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 21 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence
of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
gradually increased during the first half of the period and reached
a peak of 703 km/sec at 21/0920Z, then gradually decreased to a low
of 601 km/sec by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 November as
coronal hole effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels on 23 November as coronal hole effects
subside. Quiet conditions are expected on the final day of the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 069 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 069/069/068 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 010/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 012/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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