Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S08W91) has produced several C-class events, the largest being a C2 at 18/1320Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Activity levels should decrease with the rotation of Region 978 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately unsettled to active levels. This elevated activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream that has rotated into a geoeffective position. Measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated a steady increase in solar wind speed. At the time of forecast issue the wind speed was approximately 700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels for 19 to 21 December due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 077
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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