Viewing archive of Friday, 18 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at middle latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at
greater than 600 km/s due to the continued influence of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the continued possibility of
isolated active periods for 19 January. The geomagnetic field
should abate to quiet to unsettled for 20 January and then quiet for
21 January as the high speed stream rotates from its geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 071 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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