Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (25 - 27 January).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 071
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.49nT), the direction is slightly South (-4.32nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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