Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 February 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 09 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1(10 February). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active on day 2 (11 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 3 (12 February).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 072
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/012-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%25%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%45%30%
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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