Viewing archive of Monday, 18 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated active period was observed from 18/0900 - 1200Z due to
sustained southward Bz (-5nT maximum) and elevated solar wind speed.
Beginning at approximately 18/0600Z wind speed began a gradual rise
from around 450 km/s to end the summary period at about 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period
(19 - 21 February).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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