Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 05 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. The
filament eruption observed from near S22W20 at around 04/1200Z had
an associated faint, slow CME observed on coronagraph imagery. The
CME is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 984 (SO5W69)
emerged today as a small BXO sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Periods of southward Bz
produced the weak disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today. The electron flux was elevated above the alert threshold
since 29 Feb, but dropped below the threshold late this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next
three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on
6 and 7 March. A large, recurring coronal hole high speed stream
will rotate into a geoeffective position on 8 Mar and produce
periods of active to minor storm conditions at all latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 069 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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