Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 985 (S10W96)
produced a B5/Sf flare at 11/0550Z. Region 985 has since rotated off
the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
at the ACE spacecraft was elevated to approximately 640 km/s at
forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions
at high latitudes on day one (12 March). The elevated activity is
due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Days two and three (13-14
March) are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 070 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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