Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocity remains elevated in the 550 - 600 km/sec range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet at mid-latitudes for the forecast period, 14-16 April. Isolated active to minor storm conditions at high-latitudes remains a possibility due to the elevated solar wind velocity.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Apr 069
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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