Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocity
remains elevated in the 550 - 600 km/sec range. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet at mid-latitudes for the forecast period, 14-16
April. Isolated active to minor storm conditions at high-latitudes
remains a possibility due to the elevated solar wind velocity.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 069 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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