Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. New Region 992 (N13W01) emerged today as a small,
C-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through about 1500Z. Since then activity has been unsettled.
Real-time solar wind data from ACE indicate a possible solar sector
boundary from 'away' orientation (positive) to 'towards' orientation
(negative) at about 1410Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first and second days (23-24 April). The elevated
activity is expected in response to a coronal hole which should be
in a favorable position on those days. Activity is expected to
decline to quiet to unsettled for the third day (25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 071 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 012/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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