Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 July 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 01 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk remains spotless. A small, six degree filament near N53W40 disappeared sometime between 30/1811Z and 01/0542Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day (02 July). An increase to quiet to unsettled is expected on the second day (03 July) and predominantly unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on the third day (04 July). The increase is expected because of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 066
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Reykjavik

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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