Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 July 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jul 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1000
(S12W05) remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled all three days of the
forecast period (21 - 23 July) with isolated active periods possible
on day three. The forecasted increase in activity is a result of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate
into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 066 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 008/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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