Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 August 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (6 August), quiet to unsettled on day two (7 August), and unsettled to active on day three (8 August). The increase in activity is forecast due to a corotating interaction region.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Aug 067
  Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        05 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  005/005-007/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-7.56nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.05

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