Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 22 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 - 25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 069
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.43nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-52nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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