Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the
disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated
C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of
unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z
and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 - 25
September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 069 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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