Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to rise through the
last 24 hours as the coronal hole high speed stream approaches.
Speeds are averaging around 600 km/s with the interplanetary
magnetic field Bz ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at mid latitudes, and isolated major storm periods at
high latitudes for 02 October. Activity is expected due to the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected for 03 - 04 October as the high speed stream
continues to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 066 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/025-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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