Viewing archive of Friday, 31 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 31 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
New-cycle polarity Region 1007 (N34E04) was simply structured and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated a subsiding recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from
729 to 567 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (01 - 03
November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 068 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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