Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 15 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N32 W65) continues to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from region Region 1008.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 068
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.01nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.67nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-56nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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