Viewing archive of Friday, 28 November 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 28 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Solar wind velocities measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 538 km/s to 454 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (29 November - 1 December).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 067
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 16:08 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Norilsk
The solar wind speed is currently high (767.9 km/sec.)

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