Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 21 December. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 22 - 23 December. The increase in
activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 069 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 005/005-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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