Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 January 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flare activity
occurred. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 03/1000 - 1200Z. ACE solar wind measurements
indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream. A gradual increase in solar wind velocities occurred during
most of the period with a peak of 568 km/sec detected at 03/1506Z.
IMF Bz varied from +05 nT to -07 nT with a period of sustained
southward Bz around 03/0700 - 1000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the 3-day period (04 -
06 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream gradually wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 070 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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