Viewing archive of Friday, 9 January 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 09 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 1010 (N18E33) is classified as a Bxo beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (10 - 12 January).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 070
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Reykjavik

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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