Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 19 January 2009

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low. Ephemeral Region 1011 (S12W25) emerged early in the period and was spotless by days end. It sported a few penumbraless spots at its peak and old Cycle 23 magnetic polarity. Little else of significance occurred or was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to stay very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream brought short-lived active conditions to all latitudes early in the day. The disturbance quickly waned, and quiet conditions prevailed by the end of the interval.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       19 Jan 071
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	10%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (6.26nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-110nT)

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