Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 23 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream began early in the summary period. Solar wind
velocities increased to a high of 579 km/sec at 23/1419Z and
remained elevated during the rest of the period. IMF Bz was variable
in the +07 to -07 nT range with a sustained southward period during
approximately 22/2300Z to 23/0400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period
(24 - 26 December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 069 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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