Viewing archive of Monday, 22 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for 21
December was 068.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. At about 22/1600Z, ACE
measured increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, all
indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. During this period, solar
wind speed increased to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
IMF varied north and south about +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecasted to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
23 December. On 24 - 25 December, effects from the coronal hole are
expected to wane, and as a result, the geomagnetic field will be
mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 068 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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