Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Dec 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased
from a high of 552 km/sec to a low of 452 km/sec during the period.
IMF Bz was variable in the +05 to -05 nT range.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the forecast period (25
- 27 December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 069 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 069/070/071 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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