Viewing archive of Monday, 26 January 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jan 26 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A recurrent enhancement in solar wind speed began late on 25 January. Solar wind speed increased from 280 km/s to about 380 km/s. A period of sustained southward Bz between 26/1000 - 1600Z produced the most disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods, mostly at high latitudes, are expected on January 27. Mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods are expected on January 28 and 29.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 070
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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