Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains
spotless and there were no flares observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The
disturbance in the solar wind continued from yesterday.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflect a possible CME
signature associated with this disturbance.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions for 05 February.
Predominately quiet levels are expected for 06-07 February.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 070 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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