Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
An increase in temperature, speed, and density were observed in ACE
solar wind measurements around 14/0300Z indicating a co-interaction
rotating region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +13 to -14 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions
for 15 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
February. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 17
February as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 070 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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