Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. An increase in temperature, speed, and density were observed in ACE solar wind measurements around 14/0300Z indicating a co-interaction rotating region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +13 to -14 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions for 15 February. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 February. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 17 February as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 070
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%05%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm15%15%01%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

All times in UTC

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