Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from 550 - 440 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19 February).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 070
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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