Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the period. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period (19 - 20 February). By day three (21 February),
predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 070 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 005/005-005/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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