Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 March 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Mar 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled levels during 04/0000 - 0300Z. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated the increase was associated with a
period of sustained southward IMF Bz combined with enhanced IMF Bt
and a modest increase in velocities.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (05 - 07
March).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 070 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläReykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå
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