Viewing archive of Friday, 15 May 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18E06)
remained quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (16 - 18
May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 074 Predicted 16 May-18 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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