Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18W09) was quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the forecast period (17-19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 074
  Predicted   17 May-19 May  075/075/074
  90 Day Mean        16 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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