Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 June 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
New Region 1022 (S27E15) was numbered during the period. The region
emerged on the disk as a 2-spot, bi-polar Bxo beta spot group. The
region has been quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (22 - 24 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
period of sustained negative Bz, from about 20/2100Z to 21/0200Z,
resulted in unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed at all
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22 - 24 June).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 067 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu
Reykjavik
Trondheim
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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