Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 08 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 1024 (S25W52)
produced four B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region
underwent minor changes and is currently an E type sunspot group
with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (9 July) due to
possible coronal hole effects. Activity is expected to return to
quiet levels on day two (10 July). Activity is expected to be quiet
to unsettled on day three (11 July), also due to possible coronal
hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 071 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 007/008-005/007-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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