Viewing archive of Friday, 10 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 10 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1024 (S25W79) was quiet and stable as it
approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with occasional unsettled
periods due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (11 July), with a
slight chance for isolated active periods due to coronal hole
effects. Conditions are expected to be quiet for days two and three
(12-13 July).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 068 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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